Of course, we all hope that the outcome of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s impeachment trial will turn on the merits of the case. But even as Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has said, this is a political trial and the jurors are politicians, so there can be no illusion that the political calculus will not enter into the senators’ minds as they deliberate Paxton’s fate.
The predominant political narrative on the impeachment is that Republican senators will be reluctant to convict Paxton because of potential backlash from Republican primary voters. Some have suggested that those who face reelection in 2024 would be the most concerned about this prospect. If that is the case, it did not particularly show in the votes on the motion to dismiss.