President Trump has escalated his global trade offensive this week, armed with confidence that the import levies will deliver manufacturing jobs and stronger growth in the U.S., along with declining concerns about inflation.
More than $98 billion in tariff revenue has flowed into the federal government as of Monday, according to the latest Treasury Department numbers. That marks a 110.5% increase in U.S. tariff revenue from the same time last year.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that tariff revenue could exceed $300 billion by the end of the calendar year. If Mr. Bessent’s prediction proves true, that would mean tariff income would blow past the $200 billion estimate forecasted by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, economists at Moody’s and others.
At the same time, companies are not passing off some of the tariff costs to consumers at the levels forecasted, preventing inflation from rising.
The Consumer