Could Ted Cruz Lose Reelection?

The early conventional wisdom appears to be that Sen. Ted Cruz is in solid shape for reelection in 2024. Cook’s Political Report rates the race as “Likely R,” as does Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Inside Elections is more circumspect, labeling the race as a “battleground,” although Inside Elections currently only labels races as “safe” or “battleground.

This is probably overly optimistic for Cruz (or, if you prefer, pessimistic for his eventual Democratic opponent). To start, we have to understand how the politics of Texas have shifted over the course of the past decade. As I’ve noted here before, when someone thinks about Texas, they tend to think of tumbleweeds, cowboys, and Longhorn cattle. To be sure, there is an awful lot of that in Texas. The issue, however, is that not many Texans live in tumbleweed counties.